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Allan Lichtman The Man Who Predicted Every Presidential Election Since 1984

Allan Lichtman: The Man Who Predicted Every Presidential Election Since 1984

Introduction

Allan Lichtman is a political historian and professor emeritus at American University. He is best known for developing the "13 Keys to the White House," a system for predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, making him one of the most accurate political forecasters in the country.

The 13 Keys to the White House

Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" is a set of criteria that he uses to predict the outcome of presidential elections. The keys are based on historical data and political science research. They are divided into two categories: long-term keys and short-term keys.
  • Long-term keys measure the overall state of the country and the incumbent party.
  • Short-term keys measure the performance of the challenger and the campaign.
  • If a challenger meets six or more of the 13 keys, Lichtman predicts that they will win the election. If the incumbent meets six or fewer keys, Lichtman predicts that they will lose. Lichtman developed his "13 Keys" system after studying the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. He found that certain factors, such as the state of the economy and the popularity of the incumbent president, were consistently associated with electoral victory. Lichtman's system has been remarkably accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. Since 1984, Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of every election, including the surprise victories of Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

    Criticisms of the 13 Keys

    Some critics have argued that Lichtman's "13 Keys" system is too simplistic and does not take into account all of the factors that can influence the outcome of an election. For example, the system does not consider the impact of third-party candidates or the role of the media. Despite these criticisms, Lichtman's "13 Keys" system remains one of the most accurate methods for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. It is a valuable tool for political scientists and voters alike.

    Conclusion

    Allan Lichtman is one of the most respected political forecasters in the country. His "13 Keys to the White House" system has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. While the system is not perfect, it is a valuable tool for understanding the factors that influence the outcome of presidential elections.



    Allan Lichtman

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